AI’s core risk isn’t validity but timing: massive capex assumes demand grows fast enough. If supply outpaces real usage, GPU economics collapse, exposing fragile financing. Depreciation doesn’t cause the correction; it determines when it becomes visible.
The US President banned Anthropic's AI on a Friday afternoon. That evening, the military used it to bomb Iran. That's not a policy dispute. It's a governance gap — and no contract, no executive order, and no App Store ranking can close it.
Software moats—workflow lock-in, interface training, data silos—were built to stop humans. AI agents bypass all of it. The $300B wipeout was the market catching up to a structural shift.
AI doesn't kill software demand—it kills software scarcity. When a vertical SaaS tool's price drops from $5M to $50K, competition, not substitution, becomes the silent killer. The software industry isn't dying. It's being sorted.
Everyone's arguing about who's winning AI. Meanwhile, OpenAI made $20 billion and lost $14 billion. Chinese startups burn cash even faster. The uncomfortable truth? Neither side knows how to make money from this yet. They're just losing it differently.